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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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