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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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