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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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