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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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