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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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