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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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