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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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