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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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