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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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