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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale of the current energy crisis to the long-term impact of decarbonisation. What will demand look like in different regions if the world succeeds in getting onto a 1.5 °C pathway? How big are the investment opportunities? What will the trade flows look like in a net zero world?
We tackled these questions and more in a new report – Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world – which draws on our proprietary Global Gas Model Next Generation. Read on for an introduction – the full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Gas demand remains resilient – if it can decarbonise
The energy transition is a truly transformative force. Our accelerated energy transition scenario (AET-1.5) explores a pathway on which the rise in global temperatures since pre-industrial times is limited to 1.5 °C by the end of this century, and we reach global net zero by 2050. Under AET-1.5, hydrocarbon demand declines rapidly, except for natural gas.
While decarbonisation measures undoubtedly put pressure on end-use energy demand, gas still has a crucial role to play. The phase-out of coal supports gas, and there’s also a growing need for gas as a feedstock for blue hydrogen. And, crucially, with widespread electrification and buildout of renewables, gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) can be a source of flexibility and dispatchable generation – even as battery technology is advancing.
However, this is only possible if CCS technology improves, allowing for an efficient, low-cost method of reducing emissions from gas.
Timing is everything as the future of gas unfolds
Near-term gas and LNG investment is still needed as Europe pivots from Russian gas. Russia’s war with Ukraine sparked a massive shift in the global gas market – much of it irreversible. Demand for LNG in Europe in particular has soared.
However, a raft of FIDs – which has already begun and is likely to continue into the next year – will fill up this space quickly. As our Q2 LNG FID tracker notes, FID momentum has continued after the 50 mmtpa of new capacity that was sanctioned in 2021. So far this year the 13 mmtpa Plaquemines (Phase 1) and two Fast LNGs have been sanctioned, one in the Congo and the other in Louisiana. Later this year, in the US, we expect the second Phase of Plaquemines and Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 to follow, amongst others. This activity – coupled with continued expansion in Qatar – increases the risk of oversupply in the late-2020s/early-2030s in an AET-1.5 scenario. The window of opportunity will open again after that as Asian demand continues to grow, but will be limited by long-term gas demand reduction.
The global gas market looks very different in a net zero world
Longer term gas demand decline is unavoidable in a 1.5 degree pathway. And the market could become more competitive and dynamic as green commodities for decarbonisation, such as hydrogen and ammonia, enter the market in big way.
Inevitably lower prices and demand uncertainty would impact multi-billion dollar investments into major fixed infrastructure projects – such as new large-scale international pipelines. Low prices would also challenge the economics of high-cost unconventional upstream developments and reduce the appetite for further exploration. Existing infrastructure assets may go underutilised as the market contracts faster than some assets reach the end of their lives.
The competitiveness of supply projects would likely be assessed very differently in an AET-1.5 scenario. Carbon offsetting and innovative commercial offerings will come into sharper focus. Broadly, company strategies, policies and investor attitudes may change, leading to a very different set of trade flows and reshaped commercial relationships. Our global gas and LNG experts will be tracking the evolution of the market closely.
Explore the shifting landscape of the global gas market in a net zero world in more detail
Accelerated energy transition 1.5-degree scenario: global gas industry in a 2050 net zero world delves into regional demand forecasts, price relationships and changing trade patterns in more detail. The full report is available to subscribers to our Global Gas Service.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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