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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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