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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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