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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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