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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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