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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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