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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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