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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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