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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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