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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
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Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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