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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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