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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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