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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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