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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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