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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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