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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the scarce availability of LNG carriers. Global supply will likely see a small y-o-y growth during this winter of about 2m to 4m tons or 3% y-o-y, as delays to the restart of the Freeport LNG terminal, the possibility of Australian export curbs, as well as disruptions in the Trans Niger pipeline and supply issues in Egypt, are all together adding headwinds to the LNG market. Global demand, on the other hand, could mark up to 3% y-o-y growth during 2022-23 winter.
As opposed to widely held fears among the market stakeholder, the possibility of a shortage within Europe has started to fade away. The bloc’s imports currently continue at a safe pace and are forecasted close to 39.7m tons over the coming winter, while the continent’s inventories are more than sufficient for the upcoming winter and could even exceed the 5-year average. Meanwhile, demand for the commodity has already deflated, amid the recent frenzy trend of gas to oil switch. Yet, benchmark prices in the continent are expected to remain elevated and above historical averages.
Demand from Asian buyers is forecasted to decline over 2022-23 winter. The key driver behind the reduction could be the estimated drop in deliveries to China. More specifically, China’s imports could slip as much as 16% y-o-y during the winter, on the back of weak demand for the commodity, growing domestic production, as well as an increase in imports via pipelines. Japan’s imports are also set to drop up to 4% y-o-y, as nuclear reactors are expected to resume their operation in 2023 following maintenance paired with the expected recovery of coal generation, which will suppress demand for natural gas. On the other hand, South Korea, amid its efforts to stockpile for a colder-than-average upcoming winter and to reduce its emissions in its power generation process, is set to increase its natural gas imports. The incremental Asian demand due to the unusually cold upcoming winter could result in up to 5.6m tons of LNG which will be diverted from Europe.
On the supply side, Australian supply surged 5% m-o-m in September to 7m tons, mainly driven by increased production in Ichthys and APLNG plants. Qatari production slumped 3% m-o-m to 6.6m tons, still close to the 3-year seasonal average. Egyptian supply increased as output in Damietta almost doubled. Nigerian production soared 24% m-o-m, showing signs of recovery from August’s record lows. US exports edged 5% higher m-o-m to 6.5m tons, as the increase registered in Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass offset the decline in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Russian supply climbed 13% m-o-m to 2.6m tons. Indonesian production slipped 9% m-o-m due to lower output at Tangguh and Botang. Finally, Malaysian supply grew 6% m-p-m as production in Bintulu reached a 4-year seasonal average high.
The tightness of the market is also mirrored in the seaborne sector, where spot rates rally, led by a projected tight vessel availability during the winter. More specifically, during September spot rates skyrocketed both in the East and in the West of Suez, reaching $200,000/ day by the end of the month. The Atlantic Forward LNG rates are estimated to hover close to $280,000/day in October, while they could edge higher than $300,000/day in December, amid a steep contango between November-January. Freights will be underpinned during the winter by tight tonnage supply, as according to our preliminary data, a total of 3 more LNG carriers will be delivered throughout 4Q, almost one-third of the capacity delivered a year ago.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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