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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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