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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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