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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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