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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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