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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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