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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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