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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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