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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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