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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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