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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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