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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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