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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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