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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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