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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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