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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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