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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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