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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
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