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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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