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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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