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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
Tuesday, 28 September 21
THE MAIDEN EDITION OF DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021 CONCLUDES SUCCESSFULLY
Press Release: DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021, a one-day conference on the recent technological advancements in the Industrial Diving industry conclud ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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