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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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