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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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