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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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