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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Monday, 27 September 21
CHINESE COAL FIRMS MEET TO ADDRESS WINTER SUPPLY CHALLENGES - CNBC
Major Chinese coal producers are trying to resolve supply shortages and curb price rises as the country’s winter consumption peak approaches, ...
Saturday, 25 September 21
HIGH STAKES FOR ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK’S AMBITIOUS COAL POWER RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
Implementation challenges could block funding for other equally important high impact clean energy funding strategies
In the lead up ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
LONGER COAL CONTRACTS MAY REIN IN PRICES - ECNS
In China’s coal sector that has been marred recently by price surges, regional authorities and related enterprises should ensure the fuel con ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
BALTIC INDEX HITS 12-YEAR PEAK ON FIRMER VESSELS RATES - REUTERS
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry bulk sea freight index rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to a 12-year high, buoyed by higher rat ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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