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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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