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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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