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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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Showing 36 to 40 news of total 6871 |
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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