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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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