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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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