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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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