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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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