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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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Showing 6 to 10 news of total 6871 |
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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