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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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