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Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
 Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes.
Evolution of activity. Consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been downgraded significantly since the beginning of the year. Although these forecasts do not point to a global recession in 2022–23, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two developments—which either have already materialized in recent months or may be underway—heighten the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year, as has happened recently. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies.
Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries. To stem risks from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. As a result, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of monetary and fiscal policy tightening of the past five decades. These policy actions are necessary to contain inflationary pressures, but their mutually compounding effects could produce larger impacts than intended, both in tightening financial conditions and in steepening the growth slowdown. This synchronous policy tightening contrasts with the policies adopted around the 1975 global recession but is similar to those implemented ahead of the 1982 recession. A major lesson from these two episodes is that making necessary policy adjustments in a timely fashion is essential to containing inflationary pressures and reducing the output costs of policy interventions.
Near-term growth outcomes. Three scenarios for the global economy over 2022-24 are analyzed using a large-scale, cross-country model. The first, baseline scenario, aligns closely with recent consensus forecasts of growth and inflation, as well as market expectations for policy interest rates. However, it implies that the degree of monetary policy tightening currently expected may not be enough to restore low inflation in a timely fashion. The second scenario, sharp downturn, assumes an upward drift in inflation expectations, which triggers additional synchronous monetary policy tightening by major central banks. In this scenario, the global economy would still escape a recession in 2023 but would experience a sharp downturn without restoring low inflation by the end of the forecast horizon. In the third scenario, global recession, additional increases in policy rates would trigger a sharp re-pricing of risk in global financial markets and result in a global recession in 2023. If the ongoing global slowdown turns into a recession, the global economy could end up experiencing large permanent output losses relative to its pre-pandemic trend. This would have severe consequences for the long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies that were already hit hard by the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.
Policy responses. Policymakers need to navigate a narrow path that requires a comprehensive set of demand- and supply-side measures. On the demand side, monetary policy must be employed consistently to restore, in a timely manner, price stability. Fiscal policy needs to prioritize medium-term debt sustainability while providing targeted support to vulnerable groups. Policymakers need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous withdrawal of policies supporting growth. On the supply-side, they need to put in place measures to ease the constraints that confront labor markets, energy markets, and trade networks.
Source: World Bank
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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